Stop. The post-up is not dead.
In fact, quite the opposite. A few years ago, the post-up entered a transformative process guided by analytics and new coaching strategies. The results? A revolutionary and efficient style for playing out of the post. Post-up shots are extremely inefficient shots. Defenses have long strategized how to defend the post: bringing double teams on the catch, on the bounce, from the baseline, etc. The additional defensive attention has made it difficult for bigs to score easily. However, the efficiency of the shot itself is only half the equation. What about the shot that comes from a post pass? It’s an incredibly efficient shot. Why? Again, defenses pay extra attention to post play. Double teams and collapsed defenses allow for high quality shots along the perimeter after a pass out of the post. Using raw data from Synergy, the chart below compares the efficiency of a post-up shot to a shot coming from a post pass. There is very little change in the efficiency from year to year, but the difference between the two plays is incredible. There is roughly a .25 PPP difference between the post-up shot and shot coming from a post pass. Not only are the shots coming from a post-up pass more efficient than a post-up shot, but they are even more efficient than shots coming off screens or spot-up attempts. Teams need to take more of these shots and adjust their offense accordingly. There already is a shift in the percentages of shot vs. pass breakdown. The percentage of post-up possessions that result in pass out has risen from 23.4% of the time in 2014 to 28.4% in 2018. Recognizing the value of the post-up pass and increasing its usage is only the first stage of the post-up revolution. The second stage is actually devising strategies, creating sets, and finding players to exploit this advantage as much as possible. If teams want to post-up a player to generate these shots, why not post their best passer? For most teams, this is a guard. Guards are better at handling the pressure from double teams and are more accurate passers. Plus, now bigs can shoot better than ever and are capable of playing along the perimeter. This is known as an inverted offense. Several D1 programs have already started to invert their offense. The chart below shows the post-up efficiency of guards with a minimum of 10 post-up shots and 10 post pass possessions in 2017-2018. These early adopters have already seen great results as all of the guards had a pass out efficiency of 1.00 PPP or higher. Ohio Head Coach Saul Phillips, one of the 7 coaches to invert his offense last season, said, “It’s a great look – dump it down into the guard as another way of creating without having to work as hard.” The pass out of the post is more effective now than it was years ago, because bigs are becoming “stretchier” every year thanks to the 3-point revolution. Teams have realized the impact of the 3-point shot and are trying to put as many shooters on the floor as possible. Teams that invert their offense are able to exploit skill sets for both guards and bigs on defense. Running an offense with 4 players along the perimeter and a guard inside forces opposing bigs to switch, contain cutters, and stay with players through screens. Chances are there will be a defensive breakdown at some point during the possession. In the clip below, Villanova inverted their offense and Michigan blew a screen that allowed Jalen Brunson to find a cutting Donte DiVincenzo. In the next clip, all eyes are on Brunson in the post while Omari Spellman is wide open on the wing. Some teams may choose to go one-on-one in the post rather than bring help. That’s where teams need to recruit and develop the right player so that it creates a win-win situation for the offense. Phillips added, “Guards don’t practice post defense as much as forwards and centers. So those that develop post moves on offense are at an advantage.” Analyzing the guards who met the post possession threshold last year, one thing stands out and it’s no surprise: height. Reviewing the post possession chart with height as an added factor, every player on the list is 6’3 or taller. An added advantage for the posting guard is that, in some cases, they can target a weaker defender. If a defense is switching, the offense can target the weaker defender by incorporating him in a ball screen or dribble handoff. Texas Tech switched against Villanova in the Elite 8 and Jay Wright countered by targeting Keenan Evans in the post. Brunson ended the game 3/4 on post-ups with Evans guarding him. After losing Brunson to the NBA, Villanova snagged a proven post-up guard to run their inverted offense next season in Albany transfer Joe Cremo. Phillips weighed in, “In today’s game it’s easier to find bigs that want to shoot it from 3 and guards who will play out of the post. The key is getting the guard to embrace it and buy in.” This isn’t a fad – it’s the future of the post-up in basketball. Here are some of the best inverted offense plays from last season:
1 Comment
3/30/2019 04:25:52 am
Today's modern NBA is a lot different when it used to be. In the past, the team with the tallest players would always win. I mean, back then, post up is the most important key of the game. Today, the NBA has transitioned in a way that allows smaller players to dominate the game. Stephen Curry is probably the one who revolutionized the entire game of basketball. After a few seasons, Stephen Curry cemented his name as the best shooter that the NBA has ever witnessed.
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