Grad transfers are the new game-changers in college basketball. Why? Top teams lose talent to the NBA draft. Coaches can recruit months in advance to replace players they project to declare, but unanticipated draft entrants create a late demand to replenish this level of talent. Many of these teams are perennial powerhouses who need to replace their NBA draft losses with players who can make an immediate impact. The options are limited. At this point in the recruiting cycle, most of ESPN’s top 100 recruits have already committed to a program. Last season, just 10 of the top 100 players remained uncommitted on April 1st – 2 months before players have to decide if they will remain in the NBA draft or return to college. In most cases, adding an uncommitted recruit of this caliber is unlikely. Other teams have probably spent more time and energy recruiting this player. Therefore, the market has responded with players who qualify as grad transfers and are effective players in their league. Now, not only is the demand being met, but some advanced metrics suggest that the supply is improving. The value of the grad transfer market, with respect to the Power 6 conferences, has been relatively steady year after year. However, this year’s group of grad transfers is significantly better than any other group over the last 4 years. It might be one of the best in D1 history. On average, they scored more points per game and provided more of a winning impact. The chart below shows the points per game and win shares of the average Power 6 grad transfer over the last 4 seasons. Even though this year’s group may be one of the best in NCAA history, the trend suggests that next year’s group may be even better, at least in terms of scoring. The average points per game for the grad transfer market has improved by 8-10% each year, adjusting for the D1 scoring increases year to year. As both the value and demand continue to increase, how will players, coaches, and leagues respond? Will talented low and mid-major recruits try to red-shirt as a freshman for the ability to become a grad transfer in their final year? Will this affect how coaches recruit them? The trend in the grad transfer market is probably a sign of what’s to come for the low/mid major schools if the NCAA decides to allow all players to transfer without sitting one season. The NCAA could also go the other way and add more restrictions to the transfer rules, especially for grad transfers. One assistant coach commented, “I wouldn’t be surprised to see some changes to the 5th year transfer rules, which could be a game-changer for teams that are in that market.” When asked to give a suggestion he proposed, “If a 5th year transfer doesn’t complete his degree program, then that school gets dinged a scholarship for the next year. Something to increase accountability.” Whether the NCAA decides to loosen or tighten the transfer rules, there is one rule change effective this season that will impact the grad transfer market. The new rules allow for a player who goes undrafted to return to college basketball if they have remaining NCAA eligibility and accepted the NBA's combine invite. This change will cause more roster uncertainty, which will last longer than under the old rules. Last season, 11 players had remaining eligibility and accepted NBA combine invites but did not enter the draft. Under the new rules, these 11 players would be able to enter the NBA draft without any risk to their collegiate eligibility. The NBA draft is roughly 3 weeks after the deadline for players to decide to sign with an agent or return to school. More players with uncertain futures and longer deadlines will only increase the demand for grad transfers. Demand is certain to change, let’s see what next season’s supply brings…
1 Comment
10/12/2019 05:18:54 am
Dribbling is one way to make a shot in the game of basketball. I think that there are a lot of players who have proved this. I mean, just look at both Kyrie Irving and Stephen Curry. Well, not only are they both great shooters, but what sets them apart from everyone else is their ability to dribble. They are both lethal ball handlers and I want to see them just prove the importance of being able to handle the ball.
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